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General
The standard model of market economics, specifically 'X'
marks the spot where supply meets demand, was formalized by
Alfred Marshall
in the last part of the 19th and early part of the 20th centuries. Its
roots, however, lay in what is known as the 'Marginalist Revolution' of
the 1870s. This shifted the focus of economics from the production
and distribution of wealth among social classes - owners of capital,
labour and natural resources - towards the atomized individual consumer
(2.0 Demand) and
producers (3.0
Supply). Microeconomics was born. Before examining that
model, and how it came to be, certain key economic concepts will first
be introduced.
1.
Opportunity Cost, Scarcity & Relative Prices
It is assumed in micro that human wants, needs and desires always exceed
the available means to satisfy them, i.e.,
scarcity is a permanent condition. Such wants, needs and desires (as well as
the means to satisfy them), are not just physical and/or financial, but also psychic.
Put another way, scarcity is a permanent human condition and choice
between both means and ends must be made.
An excellent expression of the infinity of wants, needs and desires
can be found in Maslow's "Need Hierarchy".
Maslow (1908-1970)
proposed that human beings reach fulfillment through satisfying a
series of needs beginning with basic physiological ones like food, water and
shelter and rises to increasingly abstract ones like love, self-esteem and personal
expression. Only when primitive needs are satisfied can the individual progress
up to higher levels in
the hierarchy. Thus only the person reaching self-actualization will fully
utilize one's potential. Put another way, once lower needs are satisfied,
higher needs rise to consciousness and demand attention. They can be just as pressing
as physical ones.
Furthermore, ongoing satisfaction of lower needs is required to maintain
the process, i.e., basic needs must be continuously satisfied.
How
to satisfy infinite wants, needs and desires subject to scarce resources
requires a choice between alternatives, e.g., a pensioner choosing
between food or medicine.
The choice of the best alternative, however, implies that the next best
alternative is not chosen. Put another way, the cost of choosing one
alternative possibility is the next best alternative foregone. This is
called 'opportunity cost'. All economic costs are opportunity costs
serving to distinguish economics from accounting or business costs.
i
- Monetary vs. Real Cost
Monetary units (dollars, cents, francs, marks, pounds, yen, etc)
are useful in determining economic or opportunity cost but they do not
necessarily reflect 'real cost'. Monetary cost refers to the price
paid on a market. Real cost, on the other hand, includes costs that are
not necessarily reflected in market price, i.e., they are
externalities or rather external to market price. A number of factors can lead to
a difference between monetary and real cost. Thus real
or opportunity cost includes the value of time involved in purchasing a
good or service. If one works at an hourly job, one is paid a wage
per hour that when multiplied by the number of hours worked equals one's
income. This income does not, however, allow for the cost of getting ready
for and re-creating after work and commuting both to and from work. Accordingly, the 'real' wage per hour would
account for such external costs. Similarly,
the market price of gasoline may not reflect costs
associated with polluting the environment and contributing to so-called
'global warming'. Such additional costs are paid by
society as a whole and are called 'external costs', i.e., external
to market price. They must be included to
calculate the real, economic or opportunity cost of a good or service.
This is another example of the difference between economics and
accounting cost. Carbon credits and other tradeable pollution
permits are innovative ways to reconcile the two.
ii
- Relative Prices
Assuming
market price does reflect real cost we can determine the opportunity cost
of different goods and services by calculating 'relative price'. Relative
price is the ratio of one price to another. For example if the price of a
Coke is $1.00 and chewing gum $0.50 the relative price of Coke is
$1.00/$0.50 or 2, i.e. you could buy 2 packs of chewing gum for the price
of one Coke.
There
are, of course, thousands if not millions of different goods and services all with
different and changing market prices. Accordingly, relative price is usually expressed in
terms of the price of a standard 'basket' of goods and services measured
by a 'price index' over time. Thus we divide the monetary price of a good
or service by the price index. The resulting 'relative price' tells us how
much of the standard basket we must exchange to buy the given good or
service.
In
the micro theory of supply and demand, price means 'relative price'. Thus when
the price of a good or service falls, we do not mean its monetary but
rather its relative price to other goods and services, i.e. it's
opportunity cost declines. In macro theory concern focuses on the
aggregate price level rather than the prices of specific goods or
services.
The question of relative 'international' prices is even
more complicated. One widely used way of measuring
'purchasing power parity' in different countries is the 'Mac
Index' which measures the number of hours of work required to buy a 'Big Mac' in different
countries.
2.
Futurity, Expectations & The Price Bargain
Time
plays a critical role in economic analysis. In fact there are two distinct
forms of analysis based on time: static and dynamic. Static analysis
involves an economic variable or phenomena in a specific fixed
moment in time. Dynamic analysis involves analysis through time, that is
from the past to the present, or from the present into the future.
Two
great economists enhanced economic understanding of Time. John Maynard Keynes introduced the concept of 'expectations'.
Over time people's changing expectations of what tomorrow will bring
causes their actions to change today. Similarly, John R. Commons
introduced the concept of 'futurity' meaning people live in the
future but act in the present. The difference between what we plan to do
tomorrow and what we actually do today in expectation of tomorrow
introduces a constantly changing dynamic to economic analysis, especially
macroeconomic analysis. For example, if we expect interest rates will fall
tomorrow, we hold off borrowing money today. But when tomorrow does comes
and
interest rates do not fall our
plans must be changed.
Another important concept introduced by Commons is the
'price bargain'. Essentially Commons noted that the evolution of the
concept of property has led away from the idea of tangible physical property towards
increasingly intangible property specifically the buying and selling of the
'expectation of profits'. Thus business assets such as 'good will'
and intellectual property are playing an ever increasing role in the
so-called 'knowledge economy'. For further information please see
Chapter
VII: The Price Bargain from Common's seminal 1924 work "The Legal
Foundations of Capitalism".
3.
Demand
All
things being equal, the higher the price of a good or services, the
smaller the quantity demanded. This is the Law of Demand. Among other
things the law reflects the substitution and income effect of a price
increase on the quantity of a good demanded by consumers.
i
- Substitution Effect: when the price of a good increases it does so
relative to all other goods. Although each good is unique it has
substitutes - other goods that will serve almost as well. As the
opportunity cost of a good rises, people will tend to buy less of it and
more of its substitutes.
ii
- Income Effect: when the price of a good rises, all things being equal,
it rises relative to income. Faced with a higher price and an unchanged
income, the quantity of at least some goods and services must decrease.
The
demand curve (and schedule) shows the relationship between the price of a
good or service and the quantity demanded. In effect the curve shows
consumers' 'willingness to pay' and 'ability to pay' to obtain a given
quantity of a good or service. All things being equal, the demand curve
will be downward sloping reflecting the law of demand: the higher the
price, the lower the demand; the lower the price, the greater the demand.
Assuming other prices remain constant and other factors do not change,
there will be movement along the demand curve as the price of the good or
service changes.
The demand curve can, however, shift, if other prices or other factors
change (MBB
Micro 10th & 11th Ed. Fig. 3.3; PB Fig.
4.9). A shift in the demand curve can result due to
changes in:
i
- Price of Related Goods or Services;
ii
- Income;
iii
- Expected Future Prices;
iv
- Population; and,
v
- Preferences.
4.
Supply
All
things being equal, the higher the price of a good or services, the
greater the quantity supplied. This is the Law of Supply.
The supply curve (and schedule) shows the relationship between the price
of a good or service and the quantity supplied by producers. In effect,
the curve shows the minimum price producers' will accept to provide a
given quantity of a good or service. All things being equal, the supply
curve will be upward sloping reflecting the law of supply: the higher the
price, the greater the supply; the lower the price, the less the supply.
Assuming other factors do not change, there will be movement along the
supply curve as the price of the good or service changes.
The supply curve can, however, shift, if other factors change (MBB
Micro 10th & 11th Ed. Fig. 3.7; PB Fig. 4.10). A shift in the supply curve can result due to changes in:
i
- Price of Factors of Production;
ii
- Price of Other Goods;
iii
- Expected Future Prices;
iv
- Number of Suppliers; and,
v
- Technology.
5.
Markets
Markets
are any arrangement that enables buyers and sellers to get information and
to do business with each other. Put another way, markets are where demand
meets supply. Markets can be described by reference to, in addition to
other things:
-
whether they are geographic or commodity-based;
-
whether or not they are in equilibrium and, if so, what type of
equilibrium;
-
their sensitivity to change (elasticity) in prices and incomes; and,
-
whether or not anyone - consumer, producer or government - can influence
price or, more generally, the terms of trade or exchange.
In
a market, price acts as a regulator of the quantity of goods and services
demanded and supplied. If the price is too high, consumers will demand
less than producers are willing to supply. If the price is too low,
consumers demand more than producers are willing to supply (MBB
10th & 11th Ed.
Micro 3.6; PB Fig. 4.8).
6. Efficiency
In production, efficiency refers
to the ratio of outputs to inputs. To measure efficiency one must
therefore be able to calculate both inputs and outputs. This is most
easily done in the production of goods rather than services, especially
in manufacturing, e.g. cars produced per worker.
7. Effectiveness
In the case of many goods and most
services produced by government, however, neither inputs nor outputs can
be readily calculated. Accordingly, a less stringent test--cost
effectiveness--is usually more appropriate. Surrogates or proxy
indicators of inputs and outputs are used. For example, the "recidivism
rate" per parole officer (percentage of repeat offenders) can be used as
an imperfect proxy for output rather than the more difficult to measure
concept of "rehabilitation" measured in human, social, and/or economic
terms. Similarly, average salary per parole officer can be used as a
crude surrogate for inputs rather than the more difficult to measure
"opportunity cost" of relevant financial, human, information, and
physical resources in alternative applications, e.g. early education
rather than later incarceration.
8.
Equilibrium
Equilibrium
is a condition which once achieved will continue indefinitely unless one
of the variables (economic or non-economic) is altered (MBB
10th & 11th Ed
Micro 3.6; PB Fig 4.8).
In the case of markets, the equilibrium price 'clears' the market, that is
the quantity demanded by consumers equals the quantity supplied by
producers.
More
generally, economic theory recognizes three types of equilibrium:
i
- general equilibrium: can exist under perfect competition and monopoly or
monopolistic competition. Under perfect competition, it is a static state
where all prices are at their long run equilibrium, individuals are
spending income to yield maximum satisfaction, and the demand and supply
factors of production are equated. Under monopoly or monopolistic
competition, it is the situation where there is no reason for firms to
enter or leave an industry, or to expand or contract;
ii
- stable equilibrium: a condition which once achieved continues
indefinitely unless there is a change in some non-economic conditions.
Changes in economic conditions will be followed by reestablishment of the
original equilibrium. Example: ball resting at the bottom of a cup; shake
it and the ball returns to the bottom; and,
iii - unstable equilibrium: a condition which once achieved will continue
indefinitely unless one of the variables (economic or non-economic) is
altered, and then the system will not return to the original equilibrium
and will not come to rest unless there is further alteration of a
variable. Example: ball resting on the top of an overturned cup - shake it
and the ball falls off never to return to the same place.
9.
Elasticity
Elasticity
refers to the sensitivity of a variable to change in another variable.
Economic theory recognizes three principal types of elasticity:
i
- income elasticity of demand - with all prices constant refers to the
percentage change in the quantity of a commodity demanded compared to a
one percent change in income (MBB not displayed; PB 4th Ed.
Fig 5.8; 5th Ed. Fig. not included);
ii - price elasticity of demand or supply - refers to the percentage
change in the quantity of a commodity demanded or supplied compared to a
one percentage change in its price (MBB
Micro 10th Ed Fig. 5.1 &
Fig. 5.3; PB 4th Ed. Fig.
5.3 & Fig.
5.11; 5th Ed. Fig. 4.3 & not displayed). The amount demanded or supplied can increase:
a) more
than proportionately, i.e. elasticity is greater than one - at the extreme
a horizontal demand or supply curve is perfectly elastic - a small
increase in price results in a large change in the quantity demanded or
supplied;
b) proportionately,
i.e. elasticity is equal to one (unitary elasticity); or,
lc) ess
than proportionately. i.e. elasticity is less than one (inelastic) - at
the extreme, a vertical demand or supply curve is perfectly inelastic -
any change in price results in no change in the amount of the commodity
demanded or supplied; and,
ii - elasticity of substitution or cross-elasticity refers to the
percentage change in the amount of an input substituted for another in
response to a change in their relative prices (MBB not displayed;
PB 4th Ed.
Fig. 5.7; 5th Ed. Fig. 4.7).
Similarly, the percentage change in the amount of a commodity substituted
for another by a consumer in response to a change in their relative
prices.
10. Equity
The economic concept of equity evolved out of English
legal history. At the same time that the Common Law began
another unique Anglosphere legal institution emerged – Equity.
With the Norman Conquest of 1066 all rights and privileges of the
previous regime were abrogated by right of conquest. In effect William
the Conqueror had carte blanche to shape a kingdom without
accounting for pre-existing feudal rights and obligations. Unlike other
European kingdoms, it was his exclusive unqualified and personal domain.
He was absolute Sovereign. Nonetheless, what he conquered was a
patchwork of Angle, Saxon, Jute, Danish, Viking and Celtic settlements,
regions, laws and languages. The new King divided up his new Property,
after accepting fealty, to a new Anglo-Norman aristocracy. The new local
rulers, while subject to the King, also, in effect, inherited rights and
privileges acceded to traditional rulers under local legal systems. Some
were honoured and survived to become incorporated into Common Law.
William’s new subjects, however, soon brought to his
attention (and that of his successors) inequities in a supposedly
unified kingdom. At the extreme, in one jurisdiction theft of a loaf of
bread cost a hand; in another, two days in the stocks hit by rotten
vegetable and insults thrown by one’s neighbours. It was not guilt or
innocence they cried but fairness of punishment before the King. This is
arguably the root of Equity – a separate and distinct strand of
jurisprudence parallel to the Common Law of precedent.
Over time responsibility for hearing calls for mercy was
transferred to the King’s Lord Chancellor and a court of his own – the
Court of Equity also known as the Court of Conscience or of Morality. In
fact until Sir Thomas More (a lawyer) became Chancellor in 1529, all had
been men of the cloth. Two aspects of Equity played a critical role in
the Sovereign’s ability to control his vassals. These were trusts and
tenant-landlord disputes. Trusts (from which modern charities and
financial trusts evolved) generally concerned widows and orphans left to
the mercy of a local lord. The most famous is Lady Marion of the Robin
Hood legend who was an orphan and ward of the King. With respect to
tenant-landlord disputes, Equity balanced the feudal local lords by
judiciously connecting the King to his subjects. This was called the
‘rent bargain’ by J. R. Commons (1924). It stabilized the social
system of post-Conquest England.
While Magna Carta (1215) and subsequent
developments increasingly limited the King, Equity and Common Law
continued to develop as parallel systems of courts with precedence given
to Equity. It was not until 1873 in the United Kingdom that the two
systems of courts merged. Nonetheless the two strands of Anglosphere
jurisprudence continue to this day in all Common Law countries with
Equity retaining precedence.
The economic concept of Equity arguably derives from
legal Equity. In fact the Chancellor of the Exchequer (who in Canada
call 'the Minister of Finance') exercised a concurrent jurisdiction in
Equity with the Lord Chancellor’s Court. There are two economic
definitions of Equity, each reflecting its historical roots.
First, there is Equity as the capital of a firm
which, after deducting liabilities to outsiders, belongs to the
shareholders. Hence shares in a limited liability corporation are
also known as equities. This links back to the historical treatment of
trusts under Equity.
Second, there is Equity as ‘fairness’. While
often used with reference to taxation it is a general economic concept.
With respect to taxation Equity has three dimensions: horizontal,
vertical and overall burden. Horizontal Equity refers to ‘like treatment
of like’. Vertical Equity refers to ‘unlike treatment of unlike’.
Overall Equity refers to the accumulated impact of all forms of
taxation. Crudely, it is the difference between earned and
disposable income after all taxes – income, excise, sales, et al.
11.
"Let Us Assume" & ceteris paribus
Another
expression often used by economists is 'let us assume'. Consider the joke
about the economist, mathematician and physicist marooned on a desert
island with crates of canned food and no can opener. The physicist says: I
can start a fire an blow the top off". The mathematician says:
"And, I can calculate the trajectory of the food so we can catch
it." The economist says: "Let us assume we have a can
opener". Laugh, laugh, laugh, stupid economist.
But
consider. The physicist has no equipment to measure the
energy content of the fuel for the fire and cannot determine the
temperature at which the can will blow. The mathematician cannot,
therefore, determine when the can will blow and what will be the
trajectory of the food. The economist, on the other hand, looks for a
sharp rock to act like a can opener.
One
of the most important and regularly used assumptions of economics is ceteris
paribus or 'all other things being constant'. Thus in analyzing
a given economic phenomenon economist usually begin by assuming all other
factors or forces are held constant and thus remain the same as the
phenomenon under investigation emerges.
Ceteris paribus is a Latin
expression meaning 'all other things being equal'. This is a critical
assumption used in economic analysis. For example, if the price of a
good or service changes, analysis of its effect would be difficult, if
not impossible, if, for example, the price of substitutes changed at the
same time. To determine the effects of a price change, economists
assume all other prices remain constant (in the first round).
12.
Economics as a "Science"
Economics is a 'social science'.
Like physics (Cottinham & Greenwood 1998), economics has its ‘Standard
Model’, i.e., a generally accepted theoretical model of reality. Like
physics, it is taught in geometric, mathematical and deductive terms using
standardized textbooks in first and second year university courses around
the world from Adelaide, Beijing, Budapest, Cambridge, Cape Town, Moscow,
Paris, Saskatoon, Stockholm to Washington D.C.
The Standard Model was developed during the last quarter of
the 19th and first quarter of the 20th centuries particularly in the hands
of Alfred Lord Marshall (1842-1924) at Cambridge University (Marshall
1920). Alternatively known as the Marshallian, Neoclassical or Perfect
Competition Model, it fulfils Descartes’ requirement of a science in that
it uses deductive logic from a set of key assumptions whose conclusions
are subject to both geometric and mathematical proof. There are a number of limitation
that flow from this description.
a)
Limitations
First, economics is not, like physics and chemistry,
an 'experimental science'. Its theories and conclusions can not be
directly tested by experimentation. There is no such thing as 'replicable
laboratory conditions' in economics; the conditions under which economic
activity takes place are constantly changing, evolving and cannot therefore be
duplicated.
The best that can be done is to compare the predictions of an
economic theory or model with statistical or other 'empirical' evidence.
Empirical evidence is derived from direct observation or experimentation, not
theory or deduction. As experimentation is not really possible in
economics, empirical evidence is limited to observation.
Second, as a 'social' science, economics
carries values; it is not 'value-free' as are, relatively speaking, the natural
and engineering sciences. A bridge stands or falls depending upon the laws
of physics which are, at least on our plane of existence, constant and
unchanging. Economic theories, however, stand or fall depending upon
the changing historical, cultural and technologic conditions of society.
Truth is therefore relative rather than absolute.
Third, the inherent limitations of the social sciences
in general, highlights the fact that 'science' is more than just
experimental science, i.e. use of the experimental method. Science, in
general, means an organized and systematized body of knowledge. How
knowledge is collected, organized and systematized varies between the natural
and engineering sciences, the social sciences and humanities, and the
arts. Each way of 'knowing', i.e., ways of accumulating knowledge, varies
between these three primary forms of knowledge in contemporary society.
b)
Induction & Deduction
To gain knowledge, economics uses two forms of logic:
induction and deduction. Induction involves reasoning from the particular
to the whole. Deduction involves reasoning from given premises or
assumptions to a conclusion. Different schools of economic thought have
traditionally emphasized one or the other. Thus the Historical
School -
German &
English and the
Institutionalists
relied on inductive reasoning. The
Marginalists
and
Neoclassical
School relied on deduction.
Keynes,
in contrast, synthesized the two
poles of economic thought, using both inductive and deductive reasoning in his
methodology. In this course, deductive logic will be the primary engine of
analysis. Given a set of assumptions deduce a conclusion.
c)
Positive vs. Normative
Reflecting the binary nature of economics as a 'social' 'science',
two types of statements and questions can be made. The first involve: What
is? Such statements or questions are called "positive", i.e.
they involve no value judgment. The second involves: What should be?
Such statements and questions are called "normative", i.e. they
involve a value judgment. For example, it is a positive statement to say
that about 20% of Canadian live in poverty. It is a normative statement to
say we should, for reasons of 'equity' (see Equity below), increase welfare
allowances to help them.
d)
Observation & Measurement
Economists observe economic phenomena such competitiveness,
size of firms, concentration of economic activity, employment, wages, interests
rates, prices and taxes. Such observations produce 'empirical
evidence' - both statistical and descriptive.
Some phenomena are subject to statistical measurement through
government agencies such as Statistic Canada or by private agencies such as
trade associations. Statistical measures are, however, subject to
limitations. Thus unlike the experimental sciences where strict physical
and technical factors limit the ability to measure a phenomenon, in all the
social sciences there are technical AND social limitations. Consider the
Census. The Census is something that North American economists rely on for
in-depth measurement of a range of economic phenomenon including the census of
the population (age and other demographic characteristics as well household
expenditures and consumer capital goods), and the census of business
enterprise.
While there are all kinds of technical limitations to the
Census, e.g. does it ask a question in such a way so as to elicit a meaningful
answer, there are also social limitations. In continental Europe, for
example, the Census of Population is not very reliable because of traditional
suspicion of government, i.e. many, many people simply do not answer or will
even lie. Similarly, different companies use different accounting methods
and when they answer the Census of Business they do not necessarily answer in
the same way.
The bottom line: numbers have quality. They are
collected using inherently imperfect methodologies. They have parents who
have their own agendas and preconceptions about what they will find or what they
want to find. In the physical sciences, this last point is often referred
to as: experimenter expectations. However, what distinguishes social
scientific statistical evidence from that in the natural & engineering
sciences is that every bit is mediated by human beings from marketing
survey to data manipulation. In the natural & engineering sciences
statistical data is derived from instruments that once calibrated
generate evidence without further human mediation and then data
manipulation takes place.
For a more detailed assessment of
the methodological problems associated with economics and all the social
sciences please see my:
The Great Social Science Schism: Tales from the Methodological Woods
as well as
1.0 Problem - Inadequacies of the Standard Model. Also: Boulding, K.E.,
The Limitations of Mathematics: An
Epistemological Critique, Seminar in the Application of
Mathematics to the Social Sciences, University of Michigan, December 15,
1955.
e)
Model Building
Heidegger argues that the essence of the contemporary
world is objectivity resulting from the triumph of representation in Art
during the Renaissance and in Science with Descartes in the 17th
century. (The graphic space in which this course is conducted is 'Descartian
Space' made up of the X and Y axis.) In effect, it is our
ability to model or imitate nature, especially using mathematics
including geometry that brings certainty of knowledge and perspective.
Through representation everything in and of the world is brought before
us from the perspective of object. We call them "models", "simulations",
et al. The result is that we live in “The Age of the World
Picture” (Heidegger 1938). This iconic conclusion is visible in the
contemporary Natural & Engineering Sciences where confirmation through
picture or graph makes "seeing believing'. Scientist do not watch
a cascade of numbers as in the film The Matrix (Wachowski &
Wachowski 1999) but rather they "read" their graphic representation as
"lived" in a virtual reality. In Polanyi‟s terms we indwell in our
representations. They can become more real to the observer than that which our native senses
tell us. This is arguably one cause of the current 'Great
Recession', i.e., the so-called 'quants' on Wall Street believed
their complex math models were reality. The quality of the data
(see Keynes,
Chapter 12),
among other things, make this impossible. Furthermore, in the
Natural & Engineering Sciences the Laws of Nature are assumed fixed
while in the Social Sciences including economics, human laws constantly
change and evolve.
An economic model is a description of some selected aspects
of the economic world, for example, supply and demand. While induction is
sometimes used, that is collecting empirical evidence, and then building a model
of the whole from specific limitations, often deduction is used. A set of
assumptions or premises are made and conclusions deduced from them. One
thing both inductive and deductive model building share in common is
'reductionism'. Reductionism is the simplification of a given
phenomenon by ignoring, eliminating or simply holding certain aspects related to
the phenomenon constant. A model thus tries to explain how certain
variables will react to changes in other selected variables, but not all
possible variables. The world is simply to complex to be 'fully' modeled.
There is, however, another approach to organizing economic
knowledge: taxonomy. A taxonomy is a classification scheme. Examples
include the National Accounts and all of its sub-divisions. Important
concepts and phenomena are identified and evidence is sought to fill the
slots. There is not necessarily, however, a functional relationship
between categories. We know each is important but not how they relate to
each other.
f)
Testing
Having constructed a model of some economic
phenomenon, economist then attempt to test its predictions against empirical
evidence including statistical evidence and descriptive observation. If
the predictions accord with the evidence, the model or theory is held to be
true; if not, it is rejected.
In fact, however, some theories in economics simply cannot be
tested, for example, the theory of revealed preference developed by
Paul
Samuleson. In essence, this theory says the preferences of consumers
is revealed by their actual behaviour in purchasing goods and services.
However, it is simply not possible to track a large number of consumers over time
holding all other things fixed, for example, income and education which affects
taste.
Furthermore, much of the statistical evidence collected by
agencies such as Statistics Canada does not precisely fit the theoretical
definitions used by 'academic' economists. Accordingly, much effort is put
on 'massaging' available data to more effectively fit the definitions of the
theory. This exercise can go too far.
In many ways, economic models and theories are accepted not
because the have been tested (because often they cannot be tested with available
measurement technology). Rather, they are accepted because they are
'believable'. An instance were the mathematics of it all may exceed any
testability is 'New Growth Theory'.
Like other ‘new’ forms of economics such as the New
Institutionalism (Coase
1992), New Economic History (North
& Thomas 1970), New Economic Geography (Krugman 1983;
Martin & Sunley 1996) and
the New Economics of Science (Dasgupta
& David 1994), New Growth Theory appears, at least to this
observer, as an exercise in re-calibrating the Standard Model to include
descriptive, empirical, institutional and historical evidence previously
excluded because of its qualitative rather than quantitative nature.
While welcomed, the professional urge remains to
fabricate such new evidence into quantitative proxy indicators to be
plugged into mathematical models. Romer thus calls for more
sophisticated mathematical modeling without expectation of testing
because “these kinds of facts tend to be neglected in discussions that
focus too narrowly on testing and rejecting models” (Romer
1994, 19-20). So much for Positivism in econometrics!
Beyond admitting additional sources of evidence, new
growth theory introduces the concept that technological change involves
non-rival ‘ideas’ that can “be stored in a bit string” (Romer
1996, 204), implicitly referring to computer programs, a form
of soft-tooled knowledge. His concept, however, presents, to my mind, a
confusion between information (measurable) and knowledge (immeasurable)
and a failure to acknowledge the distinction between the short-run and
long-run with respect to intellectual property, i.e., between
knowledge residing in the private domain in the short-run but entering
the public domain in the long-run.
With respect to information and knowledge, the ‘bit’
abstracts from content and fails, as has been demonstrated, to provide a
homogenous unit measure of knowledge, or what Kenneth Boulding called
‘the wit’ (Boulding
1966, 2). With respect to intellectual property, in the
short-run technical knowledge is rivalrous and excludable to the degree
that copyrights, patents and other state-sponsored intellectual property
rights provide protection. In the long-run, however, all intellectual
property rights expire and knowledge enters the public domain. Given
new technical knowledge is continually being copyrighted and patented,
one faces an ever moving horizon between rivalrousness and non-rivalrousness,
a horizon that can never be reached. Or, put in terms of Lord Keynes’
famous aphorism: “In the long run we are all dead” (Keynes 1924).
Macroeconomic
a)
Unemployment
- while
focus on Labour, in fact, all factors of production subject to unemployment
definition
(MBB
Micro 10th Ed Fig. 2.3; MBB 11th Ed. Fig. 1.4; PB Fig.
21.6,
21.7)
- rate,
seasonal, cyclical, structural
- discouragement and underemployment
- lost income and production as well as serious personal and social problem
b)
Growth
Economic growth refers to growth in income
and production per person. It is important to note that economic growth is a
means, not an end. Growth allows human beings to live more satisfying lives, to
reach higher and higher up the 'needs hierarchy'. Unfortunately, we live in a
time in which a 'value inversion' seems to exist. We often hear it said that
"the end does not justify the means". In fact, with respect to economic growth
"the means justifies the end". For example, if we look at various higher values
in human society like education (as opposed to skills training) or the arts,
today government and private support is justified not because these are
considered as ends-in-and-of-themselves but rather because they contribute to
economic growth. There are a number of reasons for this value inversion
especially in the political process.
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